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Reply With QuoteYou don't have to change your name if you don't want to, just give us something to look at (an avatar).Originally Posted by newguy
GEG,
SOMX - CEO definitely talking like he is more focused on partnership than buy-out. BUT, it could also be posturing. They got a new lease (but still barely any $s spent on it or that much space), they mentioned they will hire 75 people but not until 6 weeks away from launch (that seems strange to me), etc. I wonder if this is still posturing they are doing as they try to close an acquisition, make them seem like they are willing to not be bought out etc. Can't say for sure, but it does now seem 50/50 partnership / buy-out. Hard to tell what's really in Pacoe's mind
Any thoughts on PGNX and CLDX
Cheers,
Eboomer
You don't have to change your name if you don't want to, just give us something to look at (an avatar).
"The only thing that interferes with my learning is my education." - Albert Einstein
For those of you wondering what to do with positions such as SOMX and POZN, please read on. I might sound like a broken record here but there is an old Wall Street saying that goes, say it with me (looking at you GEG): Buy the rumor, sell the news. There is a reason this is an old saying, this is what the professional traders due. When the news breaks they book their profits and move on, dumping their shares into the eager hands of those showing up late to the party. Investors buy and hold, traders play the swings.
DDT
"The only thing that interferes with my learning is my education." - Albert Einstein
I concur
VVUS like all biotechs in the R&D phase just posted a whopper of a loss! hoping it dips under 10 tommorow.
Kerx is definately on the run! Wondering when this would simmer....it traded 11 million range ...could this go all the way to to $8.50 i think so!
CLDX .....Moving higher ..but volume seems to be slowing on this one!
Cheers,
Spunk
Kerx
Spunk, in your opinion what is a good entry point for Kerx? (price keep climbing)
and what is an ideal stragtegy/play for this stock? (run up thru ASCO then dump or good for long term?) any insight would be greatly appreciated.
In regards to POZN, seems like a set up well orchestrated to benefit the big boysif you load up big during the "manipulated time frame" 5-6-7-8-9 boy what a $$$$ you could have made..
DDT...Spunk...While I appreciate your concern for my well being as a trader/investor, I too have a saying..."You are preaching to the choir"
I'm very well aware of that old adage, but it is not always the case. ITMN...DNDN... The Street was not bullish on Pozen at all. It was downgraded and chopped up. Add to that the trade was halted for the announcement and never resumed going into the weekend. The shorts were taken out earlier in the day, and the conference call sucked. I have only lost (small amounts) on two FDA approvals...DDSS and POZN held both a little too long, but not long enough to get crushed. I feel DDSS is undervalued, but hold no stake here. I also still feel as though Pozen is undervalued with GSK ramping up their salesforce for Treximet and the huge potential of Vivomo. I will re-enter both at some point, but for now the street has spoken...on both. I am just GEG and not a market maker. FYI...I sold my entire position this morning @ 11.15. I know when to cut and run. This isn't my first lap around the track. BTW...if you sold SOMX on the news, you missed another 30% and tons of intraday profits for about 1.5 weeks.
VVUS...I indicated that it was ready to pull back earlier, and it is showing strong indication that it has and wants to continue. A bearish engulfing pattern is formed and the volume is decent. It may not fall hard however, it may just trade sideways for a few sessions before it takes off again. There were some bullish upgrades on VVUS today. So I could be dead wrong. But the AH selling was decent. There is a lot of Buzz around Vivus and Qnexa, so it won't be down for long. Take your sub-10.00 and hold on.
Vivus management to meet with JP Morgan
Meeting to be held in Des Moines on May 6 hosted by JP Morgan.
SOMX...I have concerns here. I do not know if they are going to be bought out at this point thanks to the insight from the board earlier today. However, I think they are going to partner with a Big Pharma player based on the number of reps they are saying they need for broad market penetration. But I do not think they will pop to 18.00 - 20.00. I think they will jump to 12.00 - 15.00.
ARNA... Be careful...I always sell on this type of registration:
17:11 Arena Pharma files $150M mixed securities shelf
Arena Pharma files $150M mixed securities shelf
KERX...Bullish Upgrade from 5.00 - 8.00 today. It looks a little extended to me. Not really sure how much longer the run can continue. Looking for a pullback any day now. Then I'm getting on that bus for some gains in the short term. PHIII will tell all.
CRXX...Yungmula called this one into play this morning...I looked at the gap up in pre-market and didn't feel it would amount to anything...then it kept running in the regular session, and began to sell off. Went below the 20 day moving average deep, and I metioned you might want to sell if it did. Turns out that was not the call of the day by any means. I quickly caught itself and reversed and ran for the rest of the day with brief sell-off along the way. AH action was rediculous. It had broken out of a range it was in for months @ 1.54. It broke resistance @ 1.72 in the AH...I will be watching it closely as it very well could run tomorrow. Just do not fall in love with it for too long.
( FY ) 04/16 14:12 CombinatoRx registers to sell 21.06M shares of common stock for holders
CombinatoRx registers to sell 21.06M shares of common stock for holders
This is what sparked the rally...
CombinatoRx Inc. /quotes/comstock/15*!crxx/quotes/nls/crxx (CRXX 1.87, +0.18, +10.65%) received FDA approval for Exalgo, a powerful once-a-day painkiller, on March 2. They have already partnered with Mallinckrodt, a subsidiary of Covidien PLC /quotes/comstock/13*!cov/quotes/nls/cov (COV 47.99, 0.00, 0.00%) , to distribute the drug in North America. Mallinckrodt will start shipping any day. CombinatoRx will be collecting substantial royalties, on top of the $40 million milestone payment they already received from Covidien. The royalty flow will move the stock up. Moreover, I think it is highly likely that Covidien will acquire CombinatoRx by the end of 2011, at a substantial multiple of the current price.
DNDN...Buy it. Period.
Dendreon Corp. (DNDN 55.50, +0.07, +0.13%) got FDA approval of its terminal prostate cancer treatment, Provenge, on April 30. Biotech stocks often run up in advance of an FDA decision, then sell off between approval and the time they actually start selling the new drug. If you see such a sell-off in May or June, it will be a buying opportunity. Dendreon will sell Provenge in North America themselves, and will be announcing their international partner to take Provenge into other countries. I believe the partner will be Roche, and that announcement will move the stock up sharply, even in a down market. Dendreon also can be held for years, as they apply the technology underlying Provenge to other solid tumor cancers like breast, colon, head and neck, and many others.
BIOD...Accumulation Good. Could be a nice double going into PDUFA...I need to do more research on this one.
QCOR...I could be wrong, but I think this is a definite sell the news play. (Smile DDT) I don't think it will fly off the charts on approval. Will be interesting to watch though.
IMUC...Please take note and add this to your research list. Its a ways off from any significant milestones, but it is in the same immunotherapy class as Dendreon. There will be multiple dilutions along the way, but its one I'd have on my watchlist for the next couple of years.
BCRX...I beleive this will be a big winner over the next 12-18 months.
ITMN...Tomorrow is the big day. I'm a holder of this stock and am sweating bullets about the approval. This is not a definite approval as many might think...The FDA has some issues with their trial, and the efficacy end-points. I'm fairly heavy in it, not overdexposed but enough to hurt. Even though this is my "G" Money account (Gambling Money) I hate to lose under any circumstances. For some reason I'm not comfortable with this bet. Fingers and toes crossed. Feeling like I should have exited in the AH, but its too late now. Letting the Fish Burn.
GEG.
Last edited by globalequitygroup; 05-03-2010 at 10:18 PM.
Spunk, in your opinion what is a good entry point for Kerx? (price keep climbing)
and what is an ideal stragtegy/play for this stock? (run up thru ASCO then dump or good for long term?) any insight would be greatly appreciated.
In regards to POZN, seems like a set up well orchestrated to benefit the big boys
Anything under 6 should make you money! 6.20 i think it would hit or be close to 8.70 or 9 dollars running into ASCO.....Also cldx should be 10 -12 dollars !
Cheers,
Spunk
Dndn
GEG, For how long would you recommend holding onto DNDN? After the week hype is over, where do you feel it'll settle. Realistically speakin', can it reach 60-80+ by years end. DNDN vs VVUS - for the short term, what is be a better move.
POZN - This could be another reason that its down today. Long termers want to load up at a lower cost and if you trust Zacks research and they seem to be more reputable than others - then POZN should be fairly valued at $15.
A Big Win for Pozen - Yahoo! Finance
I watched Time and Sales for a few hours today and never saw anything more than MM manipulation - i.e. small 100 share sales. At 3:00 p.m. when I looked again, it seemed that accumulation was occuring. After hours action is confusing. Probably weak hands or more manipulation.
I expect, even with the futures down about 50 at this point, to see a positive day for POZN.
re: SOMX
As a shareholder of record - I received the following notice of the annual shareholders meeting - details below.
010 SOMAXON PHARMACEUTICALS, INC. is holding an Annual Meeting of Stockholders as follows:
MEETING DATE: June 9, 2010
For Holders as of: April 15, 2010
There are only 2 items on the agenda -
(1) keeping Pascoe and Emster as Directors
DIRECTOR
1) RICHARD W. PASCOE
2) KURT VON EMSTER
(2) RATIFICATION OF THE SELECTION OF PRICEWATERHOUSECOOPERS LLP AS SOMAXON'S INDEPENDENT REGISTERED PUBLIC ACCOUNTING FIRM FOR THE FISCAL YEAR ENDING DECEMBER 31, 2010.
On the topic of SOMX hiring, etc. I see it as part of the strategy towards building additional value in the enterprise. They HAVE to do something to appear as though they could do it alone at some level. Otherwise, their hard work will be bought at 8.25 or less. Why do that when 1 years worth of sales will make a break-even proposition for the acquiring party. I also don't think that their new CFO signed up for "hard labor" - I'm thinking he wants to enjoy the summer finalizing a deal not running the operation.
Last edited by gaab; 05-04-2010 at 06:34 AM.
My plays for May
Now that DNDN and POZN have concluded I am watching the following stocks.
VVUS: Have started to accumulate. I will increase my position if we see a significant pullback.
TH/THTCF: expecting a small run up in prevision of the FDA panel hearing the 27 may ( Reuters.com )
HNAB: I expect some run up in prevision of the Marqibo final results to be presented at ASCO ( Data from pivotal study of Marqibo in ALL patients to be presented at ASCO meeting ).
Also looking at ARNA, PGNX & AEZS
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