2011 First Quarter Plays

[globalequitygroup]

CRXX...Hard to read. The reversal was mild and halted by the bulls today.
The market is indecisive on CRXX right now. Set stops. I'm hoping it will trade in a range of 1.28 - 1.36 for the remainer of the week. Remains to be seen. If it dips below 1.25 add to your position.

SOMX...Still trading in its range of 2.85 - 2.65. Volume is anemic and it's holding those numbers. That should tell you something.

APPA...Low volume reversal pattern formed. Should get a chance to get in tomorrow in the 1.80's as anticipated, unless there is news or manipulation.

GNVC...Reversal pattern forming. Watch your stops. Setting mine @ 2.38.
If its a see - saw tomorrow and closes lower, I'm out temporarily of course.

ITMN...Nice upward move today, approaching resistance. Buyer beware.

TIA...SNSS...Unless there is news tomorrow, I see a downtrend forming. I think it will move closer to .90 tomorrow.

[Spunk]

GEG ...Totally agree ...with CRXX I think a lot of investors realize that the 1 week extension is not bad.....Friday should be interesting ....I think a lot of investors that got out or stayed on the side lines would be jumping in for friday... lets wait and see! Could this get to 1.60 to 2.00 dollars next week i still think soo; I feel the runup would be more intense as people realise the short term reward/risk potential of this stock! Anyways GEG lets start thinking ahead .....March i hope should give us tremendous growth and prosperity .....APPA/SOMX very bullish on this two.

[newguy]

Is today's action related to rumors about FDA's decision? I am not sure when that is expected, could not find it on the calendar. Any educated guess on the trigger for the spike (or will that turn out to be a new suport)?

[globalequitygroup]

New Guy...There will be no FDA decision on ANX, just an announcement about whether or not the FDA has accepted their application (NDA).

CRXX...Still trading in the anticipated range in low volume. Slight uptrend reversal pattern forming. Would be wise to get in tomorrow before close of market if an uptrend materializes. If not, and it stagnates, you're safe until Monday morning...No later! I hope the FDA does not mess this up like DDSS.
This fear may be behind the reason if it moves up a bit tomorrow.

APPA...as anticipated, your 1.80 buy in point materialized today, plus some extra cushion into the 1.70's. On the daily chart the 20 day MA crossed the 50 day MA. and it dropped like a rock. It close below its current support level at 1.76 and traded back to 1.78 in AH. Whoever did this knows 1.78 is support. If it closes tomorrow below 1.78...Stay away from it until the sell- off is over. This is a decent entry point, but I would not enter until I see tomorrow's price action. You may get a better deal. Better safe than sorry.
Make be choppy waters tomorrow.

SOMX...Still trading it its range on lower volume. The range is very tight.
This stock should actually be trading around 2.75. AH rookies bought it too high. It was downtrending all day until an end of day manipulation rally. I have never seen a stock maintain a (in the words of DDT) "sphincter tight" range like this with consistently low volume. This stock is absolutely going to explode in March!!

GNVC...As anticipated, the reversal materialized. You had ample opportunity to get out @ 2.44 - 2.45 all day. I got stopped out early in the day's session @ 2.35 (should have left it alone @ 2.38) then it reversed and sat at 2.44 all day. I was a little upset about that until about 2:30. GNVC fell apart in the 4th quarter. My stop was actually the right call, just came at the wrong time.
Looks to go a bit lower tomorrow before reversing. GNVC moved a little too far too fast for the current conditions in the market on no news.

DDSS...Offering was closed today. Stock reversed on the news. Volume spiked...I bought in with tight stops. If it closes above 1.62, you may as well profit from the uptrend. I'm confident that DDSS will give you a 100% - 180% return if you hold it through 2010. I do not see it going much lower than these levels for the remainder of the month, year, ...decade. An FDA approval of a novel formulation of a depression drug trading at $1.60! It's surreal.
Please find a partner Labopharm...Quickly!

[Lucifer]

APPA - a new director with recent experience in getting his firm bought out means the APPA board is considering all options. Double potential with approval and take over; can't ask for a better story. I suspect there will be take over leaks soon which will propel this stock pass its $2.15 52wk high recently into $4 territory.
The risk is that this board can't find anyone to take over their firm after approval so they will have to issue more stock like DDSS. But as long as we take profit on the way up and set trailing stops, this risk is managable.

SOMX - heavily buying by day's end. It would imply that a certain cleaver big fish is doing a lot of stealth buying over the past week. Now why would anyone do that unless there is positive news on the horizon. Game on!

DDSS - a mix reaction in the media since approval. Risk of generics in current health care reform in the US and blah blah blah. With the offering, DDSS is doing the right thing in raising capital when it can; that will buy them time to find a good partner. However this is not my game so I am out. Good luck.

CTIC - waiting ... waiting ...

CRXX - is there any momentum left? Only time will tell...

Perhaps our friend Spunk or GEG should start a new thread on 2nd Quarter 2010 Plays. Time to DD ahead, L.

[Spunk]

Guys.... This is a continuation from First quarter plays......stocks to watch ..APPA...CRXX and definately SOMX . Expecting some big movements.

[Spunk]

APPA - a new director with recent experience in getting his firm bought out means the APPA board is considering all options. Double potential with approval and take over; can't ask for a better story. I suspect there will be take over leaks soon which will propel this stock pass its $2.15 52wk high recently into $4 territory.
The risk is that this board can't find anyone to take over their firm after approval so they will have to issue more stock like DDSS. But as long as we take profit on the way up and set trailing stops, this risk is managable.

SOMX - heavily buying by day's end. It would imply that a certain cleaver big fish is doing a lot of stealth buying over the past week. Now why would anyone do that unless there is positive news on the horizon. Game on!

DDSS - a mix reaction in the media since approval. Risk of generics in current health care reform in the US and blah blah blah. With the offering, DDSS is doing the right thing in raising capital when it can; that will buy them time to find a good partner. However this is not my game so I am out. Good luck.

CTIC - waiting ... waiting ...

CRXX - is there any momentum left? Only time will tell...

Perhaps our friend Spunk or GEG should start a new thread on 2nd Quarter 2010 Plays. Time to DD ahead, L.

Took your advice created a new thread for the second quarter! So come March 01 we have a new thread! cheers


In regards to CRXX i think it still has some crazy legs ..lol left in it ...like GEG said lets see what happens friday ! Cheers

[rhedayi]

Any insight into SNSS at the current levels is appreciated, I am in heavy at 1.00 avg at this point and will hold on, question is do I want to get more?

[Spunk]

Guys.... This is a continuation from First quarter plays......stocks to watch ..APPA...CRXX and definately SOMX . Expecting some big movements.

Somx is on its legs today ...am expecting one more pull back next week and then it takes off ......approval for somx would send its pps to high teens ...lows twenties.....low float... This is and APPA are gonna be the stocks for March....am currently in CRXX so if u wanna catch the ride wioth me buy in now

[globalequitygroup]

SOMX...You have got to be kidding me!!
Unbelievable movement and volume on this stock today...on no news.
If you were in at the 2.65 price we suggested, you are in the money.
If you are not do not panic. Hopefully you did not buy in late in the day becasue the days action was clearly manipulation from the market makers and prefessionals. A group of Somaxon's top officer all filed to sell a significant number of shares late last night with the SEC. (You must have a credible up to the minute information source to trade in this space)

FF 23:24 DJ VP RASER Registers 57,500 Of SOMAXON PHARMACEUTICALS
DJ 23:14 DJ VP DORSEY Registers 20,712 Of SOMAXON PHARMACEUTICALS
FF 22:59 DJ VP ONAITIS Registers 60,000 Of SOMAXON PHARMACEUTICALS
DJ 22:47 DJ CEO PASCOE Registers 62,000 Of SOMAXON PHARMACEUTICALS

Note the times, as to not spook investors. Almost midnight. Slick.

The officers of Somaxon have to do this because the company is cash poor and the officers are all living off of periodic stock option sales. (I know those guys are sweating bullets over the FDA's decision) Somaxon has to get approval or they are DOA. Back to the trade...All day long this stock was traded in 100 share lots. Very common for a Google or Apple, but not a 2.85 micro-cap biotech. They are usually traded in much larger lots of 500 to 1,000 or more. This was the 1st warning sign...The second sign is once the price reached 3.15-3.17 you would see a large order of 145,000 shares try to sell off in one order. Who in the in their right mind, with that kind of money, is going to buy that many shares of a twice declined drug?? At that price?? Trading halted temporarily as everyone was like ...ok, whatever... and then trading began again. Eventually the brokerage house trader who was trying to sell the officer's stock realized that they were going to have to break it up into smaller lots and sell it off in pieces. So you started seeing random orders come over periodically in 15,000 share lots. Yes, some were legitimate profit takers, but I would guess that most of those large orders were the officers selling shares. Typically when a stock soars like SOMX did today, there are a lot more large buy orders...not the case today. So, what am I saying? Holder of SOMX will profit form retail investors pain as a result of this. If you bought to high, you will more than likely be able to get out of jail early on Monday morning sometime. If not and SOMX retreats immediately, just hold your shares and be patient. It will be back in a matter of about 2 weeks if not sooner. SOMX broke through and closed above resistance today. Again...Monday, it will likely spike in the morning and pull back big time over the course of the week as volume dies off. Take your profits off the table on Monday, and wait for the pullback. Where will it pull back to? Who freakin knows with this Bi-Polar money maker, but I would venture to say, now that resistance is shattered, it will now become support. This point is near the 2.95 - 3.00 mark. From this point if you can get in under 3.00...consider yourself lucky. I said in previous posts that SOMX was going to cost more to play, the longer you waited, because it would be an upward trending roller coaster. Well, this was yet a very clear example. This stock is easily manipulated, because it is wildly popular among retail investors and inexperienced traders who follow the crowd. If you are in, take profits, wait for the dips and add to your position. If you choose not to employ this strategy and you bought in today @ 3.25+, you better hold on until March 19th.

APPA...Weak reversal forming. (Weak due to low volume) If volume remains low on Monday, you will more than likely get another 1.70's buy in opportunity. If the market screams, you might not. Decent buy in level. 1.72 is support.

CRXX...I was proud of CRXX today. Nice volume, held its price and moved up. Confirmed reversal pattern, and began the uptrend. There was a ton of investors loading up on CRXX today. They held firm to their limit orders though. Thus the stock could not lift off. If we hit 1.49 and close above it tomorrow, you can forget about it! It's gone, baby, gone on Tuesday. If you do not get in on Monday, prepare to pay more. I don't normally make price predictions ,but CRXX could see 1.85 - 2.00 with the right conditions next week and no pre-mature announcements from the old FDLay(ed).

ITMN...Negative EPS estimates for Q1 pulled the price down to a very nice entry point on the edge of support.

GNVC...Good news regarding a new US Gov't contract stopped the bearish reversal and saved the unprotected bulls. Keep your eyes peeled.

DDSS...Labopharm sqeezed one last drop from thier offering today and exercised an additional 1.7 million shares in an underwriters over allotment, further diluting the shares. The volume was good and the price fell as a result of the dilution and investors soaking up the bargain basement shares.
Monday will tell the story going forward. For those of you who are following this trade, it will be a 3-9 month swing trade winner. If you are short term here, move on.

Happy Friday.