2011 First Quarter Plays

[EricG]

I had GNVC on my watchlist back in August when I took a position in CVM. I remember when I took a good position at .80 for 3 months, the stock didn't move and I ended up selling Back then, they had the pact with Novartis and they had the announcement of orphan drug and they had the department of Defense deal going on and the money from instit. investors at .77 cents. They had all these things going on, but the pps never broke the $1 mark except when they received the orphan drug status, it went to 1.15 and back to .80 very quick. IMO, the fair price for the pps .75 - .85, or maybe little less now that the PACT trial is gone. TNFarade was 90% of the company's hope and they dedicated 90% of their efforts for the last few years to it. IMO, the company may not be viable as an independant entity. They have very few options now.

In the next few days, the MMs will try to play the price, but after that, GNVC pps will not have too much trading volume.

Good Luck guys

[globalequitygroup]

Guys, I am so sorry about your GNVC loss, I was feeling the same when I lost some on NVLT few weeks ago. Luckily, I didn't have more, but it's still a sizable loss for NVLT

I had a posting about GNVC few days ago suggesting that it might be over priced at $300+M market cap. I had my fears that the trial won't work out because GNVC was very fast in diluting at 2.00 over a month ago. I asked myself, if they were confident about the results, then they won't accept the dilution offer at $2.00. They would prefer to wait after the results and then dilute fetching a much higher price for their shares. That was my red flag, and I played GNVC in a safer way buying when it dipped after dilution and selling at 2.50, but didn't make a lot of money, so it's not worth mentioning now.

I am soo sorry again GEG and other guys. Let's pick up tomorrow when things settle a bit. Take care for now and have a good night.

PS: I don't expect a big bounce tomorrow. Actually, GNVC is gonna trade between .75 -.85 right now, believe me. This is the pps that it was trading at pre-2nd interim results. GNVC is guilty in overly pumping the price to dilute, the same happened by the ceo of NVLT. There will a lawsuit agains GNVC as well.

I was not aware of that. If that is the case then I guess I did a good thing in getting out @ .95.

Man don't feel reserved in sharing your opinion. I would have loved to hear your perspective long before I took my position. I might have pared it back a little. No one should jump down someones throat for rebuffing a position on this board. Even if it is rebuffing mine. That's one of the many things I like about Fav Stocks. Other boards, people are just killing each other and slinging insults etc... I am not the Oracle from Omaha, I just know how to technically trade stocks that have good volume. I have very good up to the milli-second information sources that I pay a lot of money for, but some things are a matter of logically putting two and two together. If you are not comfortable putting something out in the open, please send me or whomever a personal message as many do. I need other perspectives. We sometimes get soooo caught up in our beliefs about a particular stock and what we know it will do, that we get blinded to things that are right in front of our friggin faces. I never even though once about the point you just made. And it is a good one.

Look forward to hearing more from you.

GEG.

[EricG]

GEG, the reason I didn't post before two days ago is because I am new to this forum, when I saw your posts, I replied, but I assumed that you knew about their dilution over a months ago. GNVC was very fast in diluting. Actually, the pps ran from 1 to 3.35 and down to 1.64 after GNVC diluted, but they couldn't get more than 2.00 and they settled for it. I thought that if they were very confidednt in the results, they wouldn't have accepted the $2.00 price. They would have done the dilution after the results, like SOMX did. They would have fetched alot more, that was the biggest red flag for me.

But yet again, I thought everybody investing in GNVC knew about this and had their own explanation or justification and never thought about this as a red flag.
I will speak louder next time. What happened to NVLT, unfortunately happened here. There will be at least one lawsuit against GNVC, mark my word

[globalequitygroup]

GEG, the reason I didn't post before two days ago is because I am new to this forum, when I saw your posts, I replied, but I assumed that you knew about their dilution over a months ago. GNVC was very fast in diluting. Actually, the pps ran from 1 to 3.35 and down to 1.64 after GNVC diluted, but they couldn't get more than 2.00 and they settled for it. I thought that if they were very confidednt in the results, they wouldn't have accepted the $2.00 price. They would have done the dilution after the results, like SOMX did. They would have fetched alot more, that was the biggest red flag for me.

But yet again, I thought everybody investing in GNVC knew about this and had their own explanation or justification and never thought about this as a red flag.
I will speak louder next time. What happened to NVLT, unfortunately happened here. There will be at least one lawsuit against GNVC, mark my word

I'm not saying I wasn't aware of the dilution, just didn't put the information regarding the dilution timing and the 184th event announcement together in a logical manner as you just did.
The (1 + 1 = Something Fishy) didn't come to mind for me. Great Lesson.

Thanks Eric.

GEG.

[bullrider]

I agree with GEG. Trial plays are very risky... I've already lost pretty big with NVLT and now this.. Perhaps this will be my last trial play.

Now, let's talk about how GNVC will play out tomorrow.

IMO, GNVC will open up at about .70 cents (-75%) like it is now; We drop down to .60 cent range. Then we rally to close around 1.00. Reasons why this is a 1.00 or so stock.

1). The last time we saw .32 cents was Dec 08. At that point the company was almost BK.
2). The last time we saw .72 cents was Oct 09. At that point they had just issued a bunch of shares to raise funds to stay in business.
3). They now have a bunch of cash and a deal with Novartus still remaining as well as couple of other things in the works.

This is why we could see CTIC type of bounce after sell off. could be an opportunity to make some $$ here.

The fact is that GNVC is still a lot stronger than a year ago..so to justify .70 would be to be oversold. Therefore. I am holding until the dust settles a bit..and going to take some off the table then...hold some for the longer term and move to a few other positions.

IMO, just like many others..and most of us who buy these types of stocks know..you win some and you don't. But they always drop fast and hard..panic sets in...buyers feast on the panic..then you get as much as 25% or so bounch back up...then it sits for a bit..then it dips again..

They key is having the nerve to hold in the initial flurry of trades..and then getting about 20% or more than you would have had you sold in the panic.

The scheduled conference call at 8:30am could also be a big factor for tomorrow's trading activity. We will see how it unfolds tomorrow.

Cheers

[globalequitygroup]

Play the bounce on GNVC. look at APPA, CTIC, & any other biotech that tanked. You can still make money.

You can still play it safe with trials, just play the techs that announce when they will release data. HGSI gave advance notice when they will release data & both times they were positive & people made money. Same with PVCT & SNSS all announced date of data release and went up.

I believe THLD is the one to watch low float and good amount of insiders holding shares.

Here are a few to get you started.

Threshold Pharmaceuticals Inc. (THLD) - TH-302 for Soft Tissue Sarcoma (Phase I/II 403 trial)

Presentation of the top-line data from the Phase I/II 403 trial of TH-302, designed for the treatment of soft tissue sarcoma, at the American Society of Clinical Oncology (ASCO) meeting. The meeting is scheduled from June 4 - 8, 2010.

Upcoming Event Date - June 8, 201
Oxigene, Inc. (OXGN) - Zybrestat for Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer/NSCLC (Phase II-FALCON Trial)

Presentation of Phase II FALCON (Fosbretabulin in Advanced Lung Oncology) trial of Zybrestat (fosbretabulin) at the American Society of Clinical Oncology (ASCO) meeting, scheduled from June 4 - 8, 2010. Zybrestat is designed for the treatment of first-line advanced non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) patients

Upcoming Event Date - June 8, 201

CYTX is scheduled to report full six-month results from the APOLLO trial (heart attack) and preliminary six-month results from the PRECISE trial (chronic ischemia on 5/7/10 at the Stem Cell Therapy and Cardiovascular Innovation conference in Madrid, Spain. These safety and feasibility studies will evaluate the potential of autologous (patient-derived) adipose (fat tissue) derived stem and regenerative cells in the acute and chronic cardiac disease settings based on output from the Company's Celution System.

Good Points SofaKing...

But after this fiasco...As far as the trials for me personally, I'm playing them from the back end not the front. Will just need to stay on top of the news.

Nice to know there are still companies that have the decency to give you a precise point of reference.

GEG.

[sofakingcool]

Play ANX. Meeting with FDA last week of April. Look what happened to DSCO & SOMX. Went up after meeting with FDA.

[ctmoney]

so SOMX - still trading in the $8.80s, with more shares out at $8.25 that closes on Wednesday. I put in an open order at $8.25 for giggles when it was still at $9, but I plan to move up to get in. The question is, will it keep sliding until the offering closes and all the new shares are in?

[EricG]

Good point Sofakingcool, Iam loaded up big with ANX avg .187 I am a believer that ANX will yield big profits. The April FDA meeting is just a small price mover, it will gradually go up until then.
Good Luck

[bullrider]

CXM chart starting to reverse last few days.

Also showing 4x daily avg volume and 6% increase in PPS plus 3% AH.

Perhaps we can expect some positive news on their 510k filing in coming weeks (or days).