Star of August—ASTM - Aastrom Biosciences, Inc.

[welcommen]

Star of August—ASTM

ASTM is a leader in the development of autologous cell products for
the repair or regeneration of human tissue to treat a range of chronic
diseases and serious injuries, such as Osteonecrosis, Dilated
Cardiomyopathy and Peripheral Arterial Disease.

I have been watching ASTM for a long time, and waiting for the best
time to get in. Although ASTM came out with some very important news
during the period, e.g. FDA lifted clinical hold of its clinical trial
of Dilated Cardiomyopathy (congestive heart failure) and NASDAQ
extended the listing deadline to October, the odd thing is that there
was no significant change of ASTM’s stock price. I know the market is
waiting like me, it is waiting for one thing: The life of ASTM—
clinical data.

Before going to that part, let’s go over ASTM’s balance sheet.(from
10Q)

AASTROM BIOSCIENCES, INC
(Unaudited)
(In thousands, except per share amounts)

June 30, March 31,
2008 2009
---------- ----------
ASSETS
Cash and cash equivalents $ 16,492 $ 19,076
Short-term investments 5,970 --
Receivables, net 18 254
Other current assets 1,583 959
Property and equipment, net 2,154 1,666
---------- ----------
Total assets $ 26,217 $ 21,955
========== ==========

LIABILITIES AND SHAREHOLDERS' EQUITY
Current liabilities $ 2,100 $ 1,710
Long-tem debt 783 427
Shareholders' equity 23,334 19,818
---------- ----------
Total liabilities and shareholders' equity $ 26,217 $ 21,955

ASTM keeps burning 1M per month, but it is currently financial sound.
As we can see from 10Q, even without additional funding, its cash
reserve will be sufficient for her to go as far as 03/31/2010。

ASTM currently has several drugs on clinical trial

 BRCs for Osteonecrosis, the leading product of ASTM, now is at its
stage 3. This trial already got Orphan Drug Designation from FDA (no
similar drugs in clinical trial, fast track for FDA to review)

 CRCs for Dilated Cardiomyopathy, currently at stage 2. News came out
in May said that one patient enrolled in the Company's U.S. Phase II
IMPACT-DCM (CRCs) clinical trial experienced a serious adverse event
associated with anesthesia management during treatment at one of the
active clinical sites. But after investigation, an independent Data
Safety Monitoring Board (DSMB) declared that the patient's death was
attributed to progression of the disease and determined it was
unrelated to the CRC treatment. So the clinical hold was removed after
the announcement.

VRCS for Peripheral Arterial Disease, currently at stage 2. There are
about 25 millions to 30 millions of people who have Peripheral
Arterial Disease in the world, Vascular Repair Cells (VRCs), based on
TRC technology, with the goal of repairing and regenerating the
ischemic tissues of these patients by improving the blood flow in the
affected areas.

Now here comes the exciting part, let’s see how ASTM can be the star
of August, and what it will dazzle us in this and next week:

 08/05/09 BMO Capital Markets 9th Annual Focus on Healthcare
Conference。If ASTM could find a sugar daddy like PFE (still remember
ICGN?), its stock price will at least have a triple jump. I read a
funny comment last week said that it was a big mistake for those big
guns like PFE and JNJ to let GNBT go so far independently instead of
buying it out at the early stage. I am afraid that they will have to
make the same stupid mistake again because ASTM’s BRCs is at the III
stage of clinical trial already.

08/09/09 4th Medical Biotech Forum，This is a pageant of medical
world. It is very possible that new clinical data will be published at
this forum—If I am the head of ASTM, I will pick this place to release
clinical data, because it is the center of spotlights, the whole world
is focusing on you. The more focuses you get, the easier for you to
raise fund and develop new market in the future.

Q2 EARNING REPORT，not sure yet, but it should be on this Friday or
next Monday. If clinical data are not released on the conferences
above, it should be released here.

For my opinion, ASTM’s stock price is way under its real value even
without any clinical data updates, but once we got positive news, we
will see a huge uptick.

I predict ASTM will at least pass $1 by the end of this week. Let’s
wait and see.

[GimmeMyMoney]

Why are you posting this here? You posted this all over the Google boards already.

[Stox Face]

Indeed, The star of August

[Stox Face]

Why are you posting this here? You posted this all over the Google boards already.

Why not? By seeing ASTM's today rally, don't you think (s)he has done the right thing?

[hfsboatr]

This will be a star soon. Big boys taking their last shot at blowing out weak hands. Nov. presentations should have trial update information.
Just hang on!

[mikecaulder]

Well the RS is done, dilution is done (for now), and financing is in place.

This is how I see it:

Stable cash flow (for now)

Promising phase II interim results due within the next week for their RESTORE-CLI trial in patients with critical limb ischemia. All indications are good that results will be positive and show endpoint met.

Nasdaq Delisting becoming a non-issue now that RS is in and the company should be able to hold the $1 minimum bid for the next several weeks with positive data apparently set to come out.

Robust pipeline with other data set to be announced in the early Q3 of 2010

I see this as a short to intermediate term play with upside potential of 70% +

As always do you own DD, but I like the timing and vision of the new CEO. He's got big one's. Good op now.