ARNA - Arena Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ) : play off of VVUS results

[Bodie]

ARNA has a weight loss drug due for trial results by mid September. After VVUS announced great results from their trial this makes ARNA a great play. I don't expect locaserin to have the efficacy of VVUS drug but it is a novel way to treat weight loss instead of being a combination drug. It is a perfect option play basing on the results of the trial with it probably trending upwards until the details come out. I personally think it will do much worse than VVUS drug which was based on 2 drugs already known for weight loss, and therefore will probably dive after the trial results. It is a great option play just in case it happens to work better than expected by buying a strangle for October. I expect it to move a high percentage either way especially with VVUS results out.

[sofakingcool]

Good stuff going on.

Arena Prepares to Release Big Obesity Study, Minnow Medical Goes Into ?Commercialization Mode,? Metabasis Hires Strategic Adviser, & More San Diego Life Sciences News | Xconomy

The Uptake of Novel Therapies Will Drive the Obesity Drug Market to Increase More... | Reuters

Dueling Views of Arena Pharma: BioBuzz | Biotech | Financial Articles & Investing News | TheStreet.com

[prince8686]

[QUOTE=sofakingcool;4809]Good stuff going on.

I doubt they will do as well as orex or vivus, there drug is not as effective and they are coming after 2 obesity drugs are ahead of them. I am not saying they will flunk or lose but dont expect those 50-75% gains

[simondapooh]

Agree with Prince. Vivus would be my top candidate.

[patriots5]

I agree with all that they are not vvus but they had a geat after hours based on conference call Friday 8:00 AM....I will take 7 or 8 on this one. I hope somebody knew something to drive this price up close to 40% in after hours trading. Hope it opens here on Friday...I have been long on this one.

[megalex]

Stock is already up about 36%. Expect a strong partner to surface after the NDA is ready to be filed. With that I'd expect to see low 20's.

[marketwatch]

ARNA results don't surprise and look lackluster after VVUS results.

I'm interested to see how this stock reacts premarket and the rest of the day.
....

The year-long trial found that obese patients taking lorcaserin twice a day, on average, lost 5.9 percent of their body weight, compared with 2.8 percent for patients taking a placebo -- a difference of 3.1 percentage points.

As in an earlier trial, those results fell short of a U.S. Food and Drug Administration guideline calling for a 5 percentage point improvement in weight loss between the test drug and a placebo.

But Arena said the 4,000-patient trial satisfied the FDA's alternate requirement by showing that 47.2 percent of subjects on the drug lost 5 percent or more of their weight, compared with 25 percent of placebo patients achieving that goal.

Arena Pharma says weight-loss trial meets goals | Markets | Markets News | Reuters

[megalex]

Don't disagree. But keep in mind, after fenphen, safety is the story. ARNA has a good alternative 5HT2c drug that once approved can be prescribed with phentermine. ARNA is well ahead of VVUS or OREX. The play is will ARNA get FDA approval.

[marketwatch]

ARNA opens 11% down on the disappointing results.

[marketwatch]

20% swing for ARNA today. Now up almost 15%, and why not the weightloss market is massive, I like VVUS better but both this companies are going to make money.