How important is instinct/gut/intuition/inspiration in trading?

[dlvr073]

I ask this because I met an older man in the library who started trading with $20,000 at the beginnng of the year. I first met him in July and he was up to $100,000. I saw him last week and he was up to $200,000. He said he researches very little and doesn't use charts or TA. He dosen't even own a computer. He does all his trades at the library computers. He says he trades on instinct buying mostly beaten down stocks. He sells on runups and buys on pullbacks. He told me that people from the Wharton school of business told him that many wall street traders trade mostly on emotion and instinct. He made a killing on Ford, Freddie Mac, Fannie Mae and others that have runup from the March lows. He admitted this was a once in a lifetime opportunity with the runup from the March lows, but he still had a knack for picking the right stocks and entering and exiting at the right times. I'd be curious to see how good he is if there is a significant market correction.

[GRooveLlama]

Your friend certainly had the benefit of wisdom from which to pull. That
'wisdom' allowed him to see a much larger picture that goes far beyond a chart
or a snippet of technical analysis. He no doubt has witnessed many turns in
the markets and, by his inquisitive nature, has been astute enough to develop
a sense of how people react to such change. He probably became aware of
irrefutable patterns in human behavior (psychology). This positioned him to be
one of the lucky ones who could instantly see opportunity when the vast
majority of us were in a state of unparalleled panic. He's proved it by buying
when others were screaming, "SELL!!!" There's much to be learned by this.

[dlvr073]

You are right GRoove. He specifically told me that he started buying when everyone else was selling. He is about 70 years old so he has wisdom that came from watching the market for so many years.

[dooste]

Couldn't agree more!