Timing is everything: All my picks had huge gains

[GRooveLlama]

When it comes to penny stocks, especially biotech plays, the people that day-trade such securities that watch developing "trends" like a hawk eyes its prey, the systematical approach that these 'professionals' develop become rather predictable in many cases. A stock really swings when you have two kinds of investors present: the emotional retail investor who enjoys the thrill of gambling ("Uncle Bob said it was a good investment!"), and the seasoned veteran who has seen such swings a thousand times before and with *deadly* precision can cut out his or her entrance and exit points like its nobody's business... then you have the Market Makers who all seem to have their own "hidden" agendas. They'll dilute a promising stock, sideways, for months as they slowly unload millions of insider's shares. Sometimes just looking at the level 2 data can tell you the absolute minimum one can expect the stock to sell for, down to the half-cent. That can give you your entry point if you're hoping to buy in over the course of a week or two. I often like to consider WHAT most people paid for the stock just as a nice rise occurs. I have observed, like clock-work, that the stock's climb will slowly give way to resistance as it approaches a near 100% profit for the bulk of these particular investors and that the stock will hit a wall and then tank dramatically once they (the trend-setters) all collectively decide to pull out to lock in profits. I see it over-and-over again. Let's take GOVX as an example : 0.26 will be a pretty big wall to climb over because a lot of people bought in at 0.13, recently. Many of these investors couldn't resist .21 since it's been hovering here for the past couple weeks, now, and are selling quite vigorously. This still leaves quite a few still holding in at 0.13 but now nearly an equal number of investors hold shares purchased during a recent spike purchased anywhere between 0.25 and 0.30 (40 million shares traded around this time!). As the days go on, the average held shareprice should fall in the middle of these two extremes. Probably .18 to .22 cents. This could be deciphered that one should expect the next spike to take the stock to .37 or perhaps .40 should some very positive news drop. That is to say, people buying in now for .18 could double up on the next spike. This is a very simple interpretation but one that often proves as effective as the most complicated investment tool.

[Entourage888]

I always use technical analysis and my favorite is using candlesticks. I always buy and sell when I see the right signs which are usually reversals of trends. I don't always get it right but a lot times I do.

[Sixspeedstudent]

Anything this month?:

[DogDayTrader]

When it comes to penny stocks, especially biotech plays, the people that day-trade such securities that watch developing "trends" like a hawk eyes its prey, the systematical approach that these 'professionals' develop become rather predictable in many cases. . . .

To save space I decided not to quote the whole post, but it is definitely worth reading. A good example of market psychology using a real world example, nicely done.

[bajramaliu]

Why PMDI is your pick?

[zeroveritas]

I hope your not talking about that stock picking robot site that is just a pump & dump promotion with email "alerts" and you better hope you not on the end of the email list or you will get dumped on, LOL

I use TD Ameritrade's Strategy Desk and have custom buy and sell signals/formulas and screeners I use. I am working on a better exit strategy for the multi-baggers like BIEL, HEB, CTIC, PMDI as they handle a little differently.

Thats why I started this thread to learn more about other members exit strategies and their success or failure using it.

You might want to pick up some GOVX, MSBT, GETA and HEB next month.

You will be glad you did.

To save space I decided not to quote the whole post, but it is definitely worth reading. A good example of market psychology using a real world example, nicely done.

Everyone has their own technique and no 2 techniques are exactly alike. Some day traders rely more on chart reading (technical analysis) some rely more on fundamentals while other just play the swings (volume + hype) AKA pump and dumps.

Every stock has it's own personality, study it's trends and behaviors before you attempt to day trade it.

Once you understand the company, it's trends, expected PR's etc. then you can understand it's trading pattern.

I do not believe that charts have as much power as they used to because the game has changed a lot, now that more people are trying to day trade the charts give some indicators but can not be trusted like they used to be.

hope this helps.
cya.

Why PMDI is your pick?

PDMI (Paradigm medical devices)
has 4 medical devices in their lineup. I am not entirely sure but they have not released PR in about 5 months or so and they just went through a restructuring recently...

I believe they are submitting a few of those devices for FDA approval and once they get their 501k they will continue with marketing.

I would rather invest in MSBT but PDMI is not a bad play at all.

LLBO is a no brainer, just throw a few hundred into it and wait a few months you have just made a few thousand.

[Cosmic]

Think it depends on what you are trying to do and the strategy behind the game.

The idea of those medical stocks with a date certain trigger point is a good one. Haven't tried one yet, really have no feel for medical / bio type stocks.

What I try to do in many cases. Based around some calendar date like earnings. I hate that gambling type stuff where the hype is make a killing by a focus on share price and a buzzword understanding. Basically will not do it. Hate shotgun approaches with lil bits all over the place. I hate not just getting it right, the size of the play must pay off enough to make the effort worth it.

You can't play enough money to make it worthwhile in junk plays. I prefer to do a solid set up on something I totally understand. Hopefully with a "Value Stock" type basis that is under valued and will increase in value thru some mechanism that I can identify and track. Willing to do it longer term if is can result in a very low risk / higher bet situation / low entry position down the road. The timing part of it pretty well falls out in a number of those situations.

The big thing to time right now is the major markets turning down. Surely they must, in so many ways dysfunctional and messed up. Everything I look at is saying it should be sooner but the other half of my brain is saying it is a manipulated game and will not be rational.

Would be interesting to hear anyone who claims they have a source that can call market tops spot right on. VectorVest makes that claim. I mean to give them a better look. Might even subscribe for a while.

Basically I want to wrap up any type of more heavy long plays by the end of the month. Go pretty strong into cash or a bear market hedge with QID's. Willing to wait for the market top to play it heavy going down. You should be able to average in at this point while using the good olde gut instincts as much as anything else. Nothing very heavy for me longer term as new long plays at this point. Too risky.